Understanding the War on Iran: Geopolitics, Europe, and Global Risk
“Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please”, wrote the Italian political philosopher, Niccolo Machiavelli. This is probably the most exact thing that one could say about the recent war between Iran and the US- Israel coalition. President Trump suggests that he has already succeeded in achieving his objective of decimating Iran’s military, but hisplan in Iran is not “regime change”. Also, strangely, until this moment, Donald Trump has "no plan" to safely open the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed by Iran, and which is currently halting the flow of oil out of the Gulf states, driving up prices of goods and services globally. The truth is that by delaying the war on Iran, Donald Trump is not winning the minds and hearts of young Iranians, and so he is losing the ideological battle.
As for the Iranian regime, it is exporting the war to other countries. This is a way to internationalize the conflict in the Middle East and beyond, but it is also a way of forcing Europe to get involved in the war. The split in opinion over Iran reflects the extreme political difference in the European community. What is obvious is that Europe has no desire to fall in behind Trump and to declare war to Iran. Also, though Europe remains deeply dependent on the US for its defense, it cannot go beyond its fundamental principles in favor of peace and international legality. What one can add to the European doubts in joining the Trumpian ambitions is that the war with Iran is not considered as an urgent and constructive war among the political actors in Washington. It is not even popular among friends of Trump in the Republican Party and among those who believe in America first.
Trump’s allies and friends know that the American president has no exit strategy in this war, and they don’t want to be blamed for it. From their point of view, there is more to the Trumpian adventurism when we know that what started on 28 February 2026 as an attempt to finish with the Islamic regime in Iran and its hegemony in the region turned into the erosion of the political balance in the Persian - Arab Gulf. The Israeli authorities, for their part, have said they are committed to the war against Iran, and the bombings will continue without any time limit. But where do the Arab states stand in all this?
The Persian- Arab Gulf states (notably the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar) are facing significant geopolitical and economic problems because of their personal relationships with Donald Trump, including billions in US investments. Also, since the Iran war began, Gulf states have faced a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. More than 2,000 projectiles have been fired at these small, but very rich states. From the Iranian point of view, the Iranian drone strikes represent an effort to push Gulf states to persuade US President Donald Trump to step back from the conflict. Being drawn into a war that they never initiated, they are now paying for it with airports, hotels and industrial facilities hit by Iranian missiles.
Of course, the Arabs of the Middle East, even more than the European citizens and the Americans have experienced closely the suicidal potential of the Shiite apocalyptic ideology of the Iranian regime. This is a worldview that is deeply embedded in the institution and actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) justifying regional expansion, hostility toward the U.S., and the eradication of the state of Israel. It is by favoring this view that the Iranian regime survived the eight-year war with Saddam Hussein and solidified its position. This ideological worldview cannot be destroyed by bombs because it is a faith-based, ideological system and not merely a physical structure. The Ayatollahs and the IRGC amplified for four decades the role of the Iranian regime as a hegemonic power in the Middle East. But today with the collapse of the Iranian proxies, Iran’s hegemonic potential has been fatally compromised. However, Iran continues to consider itself as a model state in the Middle East. This is part of its Shiite and revolutionary ideology. It raises the idea that it is responsible for the region and it has the capabilities that make it qualified for this role.Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s Supreme Leaders have led a foreign policy in which Iran acts as the self-appointed leader of the world’s Shia Muslims, with an emphasis on those in Iran’s near abroad. Therefore, if Mojtaba Khamenei is alive and what he said about the Strait of Hormuz and its close is true, Iran’s asymmetrical capabilities, like terrorism, irregular warfare, use of proxies are its strongest cards in the big game of the Strait of Hormuz and to establish "escalation dominance," allowing it to exert significant control over global energy supplies. As such, though Iran is not Europe’s war, it is certainly Europe’s major geopolitical and economic headache.
Prof. Ramin Jahanbegloo is a political philosopher and the Executive Director of the Mahatma Gandhi Centre for Nonviolence and Peace Studies, as well as the Vice-Dean of the School of Law at Jindal Global University in Delhi, India - a partner institution of the EU-VALUES Network. He earned his Ph.D. in Philosophy from Sorbonne University and has taught at various institutions, including the University of Toronto and York University. He has has written over 27 books and received several awards, including the Peace Prize from the United Nations Association in Spain and the Josep Palau i Fabre International Essay Prize. Find out more about our partner here: O.P. Jindal Global University (JGU)
The opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of EU-VALUES Network.