Between a rock and a hard place: Von der Leyen and the EU’s enlargement to Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, since 2022, still haunts Brussels. The EU gave its full support to Ukraine through financial and military assistance over €150 billion and a series of sanctions against Russia. Besides, European leaders decided to substantially increase the EU’s defense expenditure to eventually turn it into a full-blown security actor. As if these were not enough, the EU also decided to give green light to Ukraine’s membership process while the war still waged on. This decision looks excessive since it is evident that Ukraine’s membership will not be “just another EU accession”. It will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to fully comply with the accession criteria as long as the war continues. Besides, the EU will officially become a party to the ongoing conflict risking a possible military clash with Russia in the near future. Then the question is; why does the EU pursue enlargement to a war-torn Ukraine and insist on doing so?
In order to address this question and make sense of the EU’s enlargement gamble, I rely on the speeches of Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, on Ukraine in the last three years. As the woman in charge of the EU’s international outlook, Von der Leyen often stands out as the face of the EU regarding the war in Ukraine. She visited Ukraine in an official capacity on several occasions and hosted international forums on Ukraine including the EU-Ukraine Summit and the Ukraine Compact. Therefore, analyzing the 50 statements she has made since the war began is essential for revealing how the conflict has influenced the EU’s discourse on Russia and Ukraine. .
Her speeches reveal the unprecedented level of the threat the war poses on the EU. She often emphasizes that the war in Ukraine constitutes an existential threat to European values and democracy since the Cold War, and calls for “a rethink of foreign policy agenda” (14 September 2022). Von der Leyen specifically labels the war as a fight between democracy and autocracy. Therefore, this is not just another war between two neighbors, but an “imperialistic” war against Europe and its future:
“The war in Ukraine remains the most central and consequential crisis for Europe’s future…It is not only the destiny of Ukraine that is at stake. It is Europe’s destiny ”
Von der Leyen’s hardened tone points to a drastic change in how the EU views Russia: from a “difficult partner” to the ultimate enemy and a “permanent threat for the whole of Europe” (7 May 2025). This also led to a complete overhaul of the EU’s approach to European security and its role in it. She claims that the EU is bound by a “moral obligation” and “special responsibility” to help Ukraine fight Russia, since it is a threat to all the values Europe stands for (7 May 2025). We can argue that the war in Ukraine has caused a rupture in the traditional foreign policy roles the EU previously assumed vis-à-vis Russia and Ukraine, such as “mediator”, “coordinator” and “partner”. Abandoning these roles, the EU instead assumes a much more pro-active role as the “protector” of Europe.
The accession of Ukraine comes as an entirely new strategy to protect Europe from Russia. It is in harmony with the EU’s long standing normative agenda to foster and maintain European values and democracy. It is also a perfect security guarantee for Ukraine. Von der Leyen repeatedly stresses EU membership as the best, if not the only, way for Ukraine to win the war against Russia:
“Of course, the best security guarantee will be membership in the European Union ”
“Ukraine joining our Union is the greatest guarantee of a just and lasting peace”
Hence, it is not just another EU accession, but rather a new way to defeat Russia. On numerous occasions, she highlights Ukraine’s accession as one of the key EU strategies to ensure victory against Russia. She particularly frames EU membership as a “dream” for Ukraine for which Ukrainians are willing to die and emphasizes the EU’s willingness to help fulfill their dream (17 June 2022).
She even does not shy away from declaring that Ukraine’s EU accession has become her personal agenda and will remain as one of her priorities as the President of the European Commission in the next several years (20 September 2024). She also emphasizes how hard the EU has been working to ensure this membership. She admittedly stresses, in numerous occasions, the great speed at which Ukraine’s accession process proceeds which would have been impossible in normal circumstances:
“Ukraine now has a clear European perspective, and it is a candidate to join the European Union, something that seemed almost unimaginable just five months ago.”
“Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.”
Overall, Von der Leyen’s remarks on Russia and Ukraine evidence how the war in Ukraine has shifted the EU’s discourse, as the conflict is increasingly perceived in Brussels as an existential threat to European security. For this reason, extending financial and military support to Ukraine is not considered adequate to protect Europe from Russian aggression. The EU deliberately uses its enlargement policy as an unconventional weapon to ensure victory against Russia. Hence, Ukraine will never be just another EU accession. However, by doing so, the EU also drags itself too close into the conflict and risks becoming a target for the Russian war machine. Ukraine’s future membership to Western institutions is viewed in Moscow as a direct security threat for Russia and an eventual (and possibly premature) Ukrainian membership might give Russia the ultimate excuse to bring its war into the EU.
Dr Gülmez is a professor of IR at KIMEP University, Almaty, Kazakhstan. He previously worked at İzmir Katip Çelebi University, Koç University and University of Warwick. He holds a PhD from Royal Holloway University of London. His academic research lies at the intersection of diplomatic studies, foreign policy analysis and IR simulations. His most recent publications appeared in journals including Politics, European Politics and Society, and Foreign Policy Analysis.
The opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of EU-VALUES Network.